STL Fed Reserve VP: Recession Will End in '10

• Blowing rainbows up your hindquarters, is what that's doing. I can't even begin to count the lies, but let's start with the unemployment number. 1) She's comparing apples to oranges; the 25% unemployment number from the Great Depression counted a lot of people that the government doesn't count as unemployed now. As ShadowStats.com explains, by the same measuring tool, unemployment is at 20% now, not 9%. 2) She's comparing peak unemployment then to current employment now; we are not yet at peak unemployment for this recession. At the rate it's going up, we'll pass 25% (by the same measurement as during the Depression) before Christmas. She's also comparing rate of bank failures between the two eras, when there just plain are fewer banks now. Nor are we at the peak on that, either. She asserts that the Great Recession will end in 2010, but she doesn't give any reason to think that it will, any explanation for what will bring it out of recession. Why will the Great Recession end in 2010? "Because it will"? "Because it has to"? "Because I think so"? "Because I want it to"? The world doesn't work like that. By this time 2010, at least one in four of the adults you know will be out of work, or at best working part time at a job way below their normal pay rate. And that's the optimistic scenario. There's no fundamental reason why it couldn't hit 1 in 3. Plan accordingly.

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