Missouri Redistricting Map Kills Carnahan's District, Favors Republicans

• But also pretty sparse. Not a lot of votes, there, to chase.

• This is, pretty much, what I expected. The fastest population decline in the state was in the north St. Louis/north county area. But no plan that eliminated the state's only black-majority district would survive federal review. Which means that 1st district has to expand in some direction to add more black voters, and it's not like expanding it into west Alton or towards St. Charles would do that, so it pretty much has to expand south. I wish that sticker didn't cover the border between 1st and 2nd district, but, to me, it looks less like "eliminating Carnahan" than "forcing Akin and Carnahan into a run-off." And I wouldn't rule out Carnahan in that race. Inner-ring suburban voters are not going vote for Akin in any serious numbers, and the union vote on the south side will probably still turn out Democratic. That puts Akin at having to put together a majority out of Clayton, Ladue, and the white-flight parts of St. Charles and Jefferson County -- a chancy proposition, I think.

• I hope that Carnahan keeps his seat, especially with whackjob Akin considering a run for Senate. I pray for a Hartzler/Luetkemeyer primary.

• I agree, though it looks like the second district would move a bit further west into Franklin County. Pretty conservative there, for the most part.

• What's not clear to me, and hasn't been discussed in any news article I've read on this, is how much more competitive this would make the 2nd district. The Democratic areas of St. Louis County that were in the 3rd District appear to be moved to the 2nd, and unless some more Conservative areas are being added, might be enough to at least provide the chance for this redistricting to backfire against the Republicans.

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