John Smoltz Invades St. Louis Tonight: Your Guide to the Start of the Century
But aside from all that, the hype and story, there's also the matter of the performance itself. I was thrilled to death with what we saw from Smoltz last time out; here's what I'll be looking for this time around.
Would it be overly trite of me to say I just expect more of the same we saw last time? Honestly, that's what I would like to see, but I'm not sure it's what we're going to get.
When Smoltz made his last start, in San Diego, he was doing it on seventeen days' rest. More than anything, that fact is what worries me. The biggest factor for pitchers coming back from shoulder surgery is weakness and fatigue, as opposed to elbows, which tend to show up more as a lack of command. With over two weeks off from throwing in competitive game situations, Smoltz's surgically repaired right shoulder should have been plenty strong. We saw excellent velocity, decent stamina, and an ability to finish off his pitches that was sorely missing in his time with Boston. On a normal starter's schedule, I wonder if we'll see that fatigue start to creep in again.
It wouldn't surprise me if he came out throwing bullets again the first couple innings just like in San Diego. It also wouldn't surprise me if after a couple innings, the shoulder starts wearing out a bit. Watch for what his pitches start doing after he's thrown about 25-30; if there's a marked decline in velocity and the ball starts elevating, we'll know the shoulder is probably rearing its ugly head.
I'm not going to bother talking about the whole pitch-tipping thing. We heard the same thing in the autumn of 2007 with Joel Pineiro, and he then went out and made us all cringe every fifth day in 2008.
The quality of Smoltz's breaking pitches was the most remarkable thing for me in his first start. Both his slider and split-finger pitch had tremendous bite, and I think the extra time he had working on his delivery is probably the reason why. Smoltz himself talked about tweaking his mechanics, and when John Smoltz, veteran of 21 major league seasons and one of the most cerebral pitchers you're going to meet, tells you he found a mechanical thing, I would tend to believe him. Once again, though, I'm going to be watching to see if he can maintain those improvements. If he begins to tire (or, more accurately, if his shoulder begins to tire), we may see his arm slot begin to wander. Just as we saw with Mark Mulder's long and ultimately fruitless quest to come back from shoulder surgery, maintaining a consistent arm slot with a shoulder that lacks strength can be an exercise in frustration. If Smoltz can't throw his pitches from the same arm slot all game, his breaking stuff will likely show it.